Secondary Market Analysis Part 2
Is a more expensive watch always better for beginners?
Research

"Not everything good is expensive
but if it is expensive it must be good."

This is a phrase often heard in collector markets such as luxury watches, Wine and art.

While it is a saying that makes sense in the collection and investment industry, It can also put pressure on beginners who lack experience and do not know the evaluation criteria, Making them feel that "to avoid failure you must buy an expensive watch" and thus distance themselves from watches.

Therefore in this Pre-owned Market Research Part 2, We have verified the truth of this statement from the perspective of beginners.

Brand Awareness Criteria

Choosing a brand with high awareness means selecting a brand that has been verified by the public, Which is an important factor to avoid failure.
Then how can we quantify 'awareness' and compare the differences?

I measured awareness based on the number of units sold in the global pre-owned market in 2025. (Revenue can distort rankings if a brand sells a small number of ultra-high-priced pieces, So it is not appropriate from a beginner's perspective.)

Based on the number of units, Rolex is overwhelmingly dominant (470, 000 units in 2025 according to the database). The gap with other brands is so large that there is some data skew, But that is the reality.

<b>Rolex Datejust Cream Tapestry Dial Ref. 16030</b><br>https://www.bulangandsons.net

Rolex Datejust Cream Tapestry Dial Ref. 16030
https://www.bulangandsons.net

If you add price to the awareness evaluation and look at the 'awareness relative to average transaction price' criterion, Seiko is overwhelming. Seiko's awareness is about 11% of Rolex, But its average transaction price is only 6%.

<b>Seiko 6306-7000 Turtle - 1976</b>
<br>https://www.watchvault.com.au/

Seiko 6306-7000 Turtle - 1976
https://www.watchvault.com.au/

© EveryWatch

© EveryWatch

Liquidity Criteria

No matter how well-known the watch is, If it is difficult to sell, You may end up paying a harsh lesson fee. (The correlation coefficient is only 33 percent!) The easier a watch is to sell, The more you can minimize depreciation and fees and sell quickly, So it is an essential factor I emphasize for beginners.

© Watch Terminal

© Watch Terminal

Liquidity was measured based on 'inventory days'.
This is the time from listing to sale, And the lower the inventory days, The higher the liquidity.
[For reference, The 'purchase conversion rate' in the database (proportion of sales within 12 months) showed an 85 percent correlation with inventory days.]

<b>TAG Heuer Carrera Glassbox Chronograph 39mm</b>
<br>https://monochrome-watches.com

TAG Heuer Carrera Glassbox Chronograph 39mm
https://monochrome-watches.com

Based on this criterion, The brand with the best liquidity was not Rolex (at least last year).
Even excluding the special case of Hermès, TAG Heuer, Cartier, Tudor, Omega ranked higher. The main reason Rolex fell in the rankings is price. While Rolex's average transaction price exceeds $18, 000,
Tudor is below $4, 000 and Omega is about $5, 200. Even based on liquidity relative to price, Rolex falls below the middle, But TAG Heuer remains in fifth place.
[Preferences may differ between the domestic and global markets.]

© EveryWatch

© EveryWatch

Popularity Growth Rate Criteria

A sharp rise in popularity is a strong signal of undervaluation. In the first part of the 2025 pre-owned market review, We measured this by analyzing both price and transaction volume changes. It is natural market logic that rising prices make buyers hesitate and falling prices increase value, But what if both price and transaction volume surge? That is a sign that the world is paying attention.

The number one brand in this category is Piaget, Which saw a 32 percent increase in transaction price and a 54 percent increase in transaction volume last year.

Piaget features creative designs like Cartier and quality and mechanical movements on par with Patek and Vacheron, But due to low brand awareness and lack of iconic models, It is severely undervalued in the pre-owned market.

However, Since Piaget's average transaction price exceeds $12, 000, Hamilton ranks first based on the price-relative popularity growth index. The military watch line Khaki Field is popular in both current and vintage models, With last year's transaction volume up 37 percent (price up 2 percent).

<b>Hamilton Khaki Field Mechanical 38 mm H69439931</b>
<br>https://www.goldentreejewellers.com

Hamilton Khaki Field Mechanical 38 mm H69439931
https://www.goldentreejewellers.com

© EveryWatch

© EveryWatch

Comprehensive Scoring

When combining awareness, Liquidity and popularity growth indicators, The top ranks are the somewhat predictable 'Rolex-Cartier-Omega' combination.

© EveryWatch

© EveryWatch

After converting each indicator to a 100-point index, Rolex scored 207, Omega 151 and Cartier 141 out of a total of 300, Making them the top three.
Tissot ranks first based on the price-relative comprehensive index, But its overall score is only 81, Below the median (102), So Hamilton (105) and Seiko (103) are considered the most balanced value-for-money starting points.

<b>Tissot PRX Powermatic 80 - Light Blue</b>
<Br>https://timeandtidewatches.com

Tissot PRX Powermatic 80 - Light Blue
https://timeandtidewatches.com

Conclusion: Is Expensive Always Good?

To conclude, For beginners, The idea that "expensive is good" is somewhat supported by the numbers. When looking at the scatterplot of average transaction price and comprehensive index by brand, There is a weak upward trend, And the relationship between popularity growth and price is even clearer. The average transaction price of the top 10 brands in popularity growth is about $50, 000, While the bottom 10 is $4, 700.

© EveryWatch

© EveryWatch

However, According to the quantitative criteria discussed in this article, The law of diminishing marginal utility becomes clear as prices rise. Beyond a certain price, Purchases are more about "finding a watch I like" than "avoiding failure, " and you need to consider finishing, Complications, Dial manufacturing techniques and stories in a comprehensive way.

<b>Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Chronograph 3970
</b><br>https://www.europeanwatch.com

Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Chronograph 3970
https://www.europeanwatch.com

Meanwhile, This survey is an analysis by brand, Not by model. Even within Cartier (average transaction price $7, 400), vintage vermeil Tank can be purchased at the price level of Longines or Frederique Constant ($2, 000~$2, 500), While enjoying the benefits of Cartier's high awareness, Liquidity and popularity growth.

Do Not Fear the Pre-owned Market

VIVER Showroom Apgujeong  ©VIVER

VIVER Showroom Apgujeong ©VIVER

For beginners for whom economic factors are important, The pre-owned watch market is a very attractive market. Except for a few exceptions, Most new watches begin to depreciate immediately after purchase, And the risk of loss increases for beginners whose tastes may change.

Model Price Chart ©VIVER

Model Price Chart ©VIVER

On the other hand, Pre-owned watches that have already depreciated enough can be purchased at less than half the price of new ones, And recently there have been many cases where people sold at a higher price than they paid three or four years ago.

© EveryWatch

© EveryWatch

Also, The pace of change in watch design is very slow, So I believe that even watches that are 10 to 30 years old are more than enough to enjoy the charm of the brand.

Rolex Datejust 36mm Silver Dial <br>Version History

Rolex Datejust 36mm Silver Dial
Version History

You can gain experience with watches, Enjoy beautiful watches every day, And sell at almost the original price or even make a small profit. Isn't this an opportunity that's hard to refuse?

But it is not because you do not know this that you fear the pre-owned market.

The biggest concern about pre-owned watches is confidence in authenticity and condition. Therefore, VIVER applies strict standards for authenticity verification and condition assessment that exceed industry norms, And explains them in a way that is easy and transparent for entry-level customers to understand, So you can purchase pre-owned items with confidence.

VIVER Appraisal Certificate provided with every watch purchase

VIVER Appraisal Certificate provided with every watch purchase

It is VIVER's mission to help many beginners overcome their fear of pre-owned/vintage watches, Deepen their knowledge of watches, And conveniently and easily trade their favorite timepieces.

David Hwang

Watch Analyst

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