The Light and Shadow of the Luxury Watch Market:
Dominance by the Strong

ⓒ Luxhouze

Global investment bank Morgan Stanley and Swiss luxury watch market analysis specialist LuxeConsult have released the 2024 edition of their annual market share data for Swiss watch manufacturers.

In this article, Based on this data which is considered a key indicator in the industry, We examine how the market structure and consumer behavior have changed before and after the unprecedented shift caused by the pandemic and how these changes have affected each brand.

Overall Market – The Rich Get Richer

The luxury watch market is increasingly dominated by a handful of strong players. The sales of the top five brands (Rolex, Cartier, Omega, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe) have surged by 73% compared to pre-COVID levels. This far exceeds the overall market sales growth rate of 35%.

Top 5 Brands Sales Growth Rate
(2019 vs 2024)

ⓒ Morgan Stanley, LuxeConsult

What is even more noteworthy is that the combined market share of these five brands has soared from 48% in 2019 to 59% in 2024. Despite a 44% increase in the average selling price of these brands, Sales volume has also grown, Indicating a deepening polarization in the luxury watch market. With the top ten brands accounting for 74% of the market, The position of small and medium-sized brands is becoming increasingly precarious.

Change in Combined Market Share of Top 5 Brands

ⓒ Morgan Stanley, LuxeConsult

Rolex
Overwhelming but Slowing Growth

ⓒ Rolex

Rolex continues to reign as the absolute leader in the luxury watch market. Compared to before the pandemic, Its sales have doubled with a 104% increase. However, The growth rate compared to 2023 is only 5%, Indicating a slowdown.

Of particular note is the change in sales volume. While there has been an 18% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, The 5% decline compared to 2023 is concerning. This is the first recorded decline since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020.

Rolex Annual Sales and Volume Trends

ⓒ Morgan Stanley, LuxeConsult

The average selling price has risen by 57% compared to pre-pandemic levels, Reflecting steady annual growth of 5 to 6%. Even compared to 2023, It increased by 10%, Showing that Rolex's pricing strategy remains effective. However, Considering the decline in sales volume, It is clear that Rolex faces new challenges.

Swatch Group vs Richemont:
Contrasting Results

ⓒ Cartier, Omega

The fortunes of the two major groups in the luxury watch market have diverged. The most notable change before and after the pandemic is the reversal in rankings between Cartier (Richemont) and Omega (Swatch Group).

Swatch Group vs Richemont Stock Price Trends (2019 - Present)
ⓒ Investing.com

Until 2021, The performance of both companies was similar. However, In 2023, Omega's sales fell to 84% of Cartier's, And last year the gap widened further to 75%. This pattern is also seen in the second-largest brands within each group.

Vacheron Constantin of Richemont struggled somewhat last year but still posted a 68% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, Longines of Swatch Group has shown a steady decline, With results down 30% compared to before the pandemic.

'Fashion Brand' Watches,
Top Growth Rates

ⓒ Hermes

Not only traditional watch brands but also the watch divisions of fashion houses are showing remarkable growth. Hermès recorded a growth rate of 156% compared to before the pandemic, While Chanel achieved 153% growth and rose from the 30s to 13th place in the rankings. Louis Vuitton entered the top 50 list starting in 2022.

‘Fashion Brand’ Watchmaking Ranking Changes (2019 vs 2024)
ⓒ Morgan Stanley, LuxeConsult

As mentioned in the 2024 review and 2025 outlook, This trend is consistent with the pattern that brands excelling in creative design and storytelling are successful. Fashion brands are effectively incorporating their strengths in design and brand narrative into their watches.

Notable Changes in Individual Brands

Looking at individual brands, Breitling stands out for climbing nine places compared to before the pandemic to reach seventh place. Swatch also entered the top ten, Rising twelve places thanks to the popularity of the MoonSwatch.

ⓒ Teddy Baldassarre

Focusing on 2024 alone, The growth of Frederique Constant is also noteworthy. Despite a significant increase in the average selling price among industry leaders, Frederique Constant, Known for its excellent value, Achieved a remarkable 49% increase in sales compared to the previous year. This demonstrates that demand for relatively affordable products in the luxury watch market remains strong.

ⓒ Revolution Watch

Conclusion: The Future of the Changing Luxury Watch Market

In the luxury watch market, The dominance of a few strong players is intensifying, While brands that succeed in creative design, Effective storytelling, And active engagement with younger generations are standing out. The boundaries between traditional watch brands and fashion houses are also blurring, And consumers are choosing watches not just as tools to tell time but as means of expressing their individuality and values.

Amid these dynamic market changes, Attention is focused on whether each brand can maintain its unique identity while targeting new consumer segments and how the value of luxury watches will be redefined in the digital age.