There are only a few days left in 2024, A year full of ups and downs. How did the watch market perform this year and what can we expect for next year? Let us take a look at several data points.

2024: Continued Decline in Global Pre-owned Prices

According to Watch Charts, Which tracks global watch prices based on actual transaction data, As of December 27, Global watch prices have fallen by 5.8% compared to the end of last year. The correction of prices that soared excessively during the pandemic and the high resale premium continues.

Pre-owned Watch Price Index ⓒ watchcharts

The price decline is concentrated among brands with an average transaction price of over 10 million KRW. In particular, Major models such as the Rolex GMT and Daytona and the Patek Philippe Nautilus, Which led the pre-owned price rally during the pandemic, Are most affected.

Rolex Daytona 126500LN ⓒ watchesbysjx

Annual Watch Price Fluctuation ⓒ watchcharts

On the other hand, Brands such as Bulova, Glycine, Junghans, And Certina, Which are in the mid to low price range but have a strong fan base, Have seen their prices rise.

2024: New Watch Market Turns Downward

This year, The new watch market also faced difficulties similar to the pre-owned market. According to Swiss watch export statistics, Which best reflect demand for new watches (source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry), Cumulative Swiss watch exports as of November 2024 amounted to 23.9 billion CHF (about 37 trillion KRW), A 2.7% decrease from the previous year.

ⓒ fhs.swiss

The most pronounced decline in export performance was seen in China and Hong Kong. Due to the economic downturn and the Chinese government's policies creating an anti-luxury sentiment, Demand from China and Hong Kong fell by 26% and 20% respectively compared to the previous year.

The combined decrease in exports to these two regions was 1.1 billion CHF (1.7 trillion KRW), Offsetting the robust growth in the United States (6% growth) and Japan (10% growth).

2024: Auction Market, Volume Up
Prices Down

According to Every Watch, Which tracks the results of about 100 auction houses including global majors such as Sotheby's, Christie's, And Phillips, The cumulative auction sales as of November 2024 reached approximately 815 million USD (1.1 trillion KRW).

Global Watch Auction Market Size ⓒ everywatch

Although December auction results have not yet been tallied, The cumulative average winning bid this year is about 10, 600 USD (about 14 million KRW), Which is a 27% decrease from last year.

This figure, Which contrasts with the 5% decline seen in WatchCharts, May be related to the market's move to more aggressively convert watches into cash. The cumulative number of auction transactions as of November has already exceeded 76, 000, Which is 24% higher than the annual total of 62, 000 in 2023.

Global Watch Auction Transaction Volume ⓒ everywatch

Thus, The global watch market in 2024 can be summed up with the word 'decline'. So what will 2025 look like?

2025: Will Pre-owned Prices Hit Bottom?

This is a very cautious topic. However, Given that the rate of decline in pre-owned prices in 2024 has slowed significantly, It may be that the downturn is nearing its end. The decline in pre-owned watch prices began in April 2022. In the early stages of the downturn, Prices fell by as much as 6%, And the average monthly decline between April and December 2022 was 3.4%.

The decline continued in 2023, But the pace slowed to an average of 1.0% per month, And in December 2023, The rate dropped to 0.3%. In 2024, The pace slowed further to an average of 0.5% per month, With temporary increases recorded in January, June, And October.

Moreover, Most of the watches that account for transaction volume in the pre-owned market are current models, And retail price increases are expected for these watches next year. The pre-owned market, Which supplies alternatives to watches that cannot be purchased at retail prices in department stores, Is also likely to reflect this.

2025: The Growing Power of Women

There was a segment that held up well even in a difficult market. That is, Watches favored by women. Compared to men's watches, Women's watches are smaller and less expensive, And their value for money is highlighted by the fashion trend toward smaller watches.

A representative example is Cartier. Excluding the Santos, Which has a relatively high proportion of male buyers, The main model Tank saw only a 1% decline throughout the year, While the Panthère and Baignoire even increased. Among Rolex models, Many women's Datejust models saw price increases in 2024.

ⓒ watchcharts

Cartier Baignoir mini ⓒ Cartier

In the auction market as well, Cartier Baignoire, Panthère, And Tank are among the top watches that exceeded their expected winning bids.

ⓒ Everywatch, Watch Terminal

2025: A Market for Enthusiasts

If mass demand for watches increased during the pandemic, Next year enthusiasts are expected to drive demand. It is difficult to strictly define which watches are liked 'only' by collectors, But demand for watches that typically attract more interest from enthusiasts is rising.

Watches with shaped cases rather than round, Gold rather than steel, And gem-set watches have shown higher rates of exceeding auction estimates.

Richard Mille Limited Edition RM56-02 AO
Tourbillon Sapphire ⓒ Christie's

Global Watch Auction Transaction Volume ⓒ Everywatch, Watch Terminal

Demand for vintage watches also remains strong. This year, The proportion of auction lots that exceeded their estimates was higher for vintage watches than for modern watches, The first time this has happened since data collection began in 2018.

Auction Estimate Exceedance Rate ⓒ Everywatch, Watch Terminal

The economic outlook for next year is expected to be challenging for various reasons. As such, Demand for watches is likely to be led by true enthusiasts. With prices having declined for 32 consecutive months, It may not be a bad time to purchase a watch you truly want.