Rolex for Generation Z
Can Cartier become the next Rolex?
Brand Focus

'Cartier is the Rolex for Generation Z.' This was the headline of a Bloomberg article on December 1 last year. It is understandable (and hard to believe) but Cartier has now become a brand with a 'resale premium.'

Table 1. Cartier Tank traded with a resale premium of around 10%

Table 1. Cartier Tank traded with a resale premium of around 10%

For those who appreciate the analog sensibility of mechanical watches this situation may seem unfamiliar. However if you look at how Rolex became 'Rolex' you will understand that Cartier's growing market dominance is not simply a temporary phenomenon caused by the Taylor Swift effect.

The Cartier Santos Demoiselle, Which became a hot topic due to an engagement photo
<br>© https://www.vogue.co.uk

The Cartier Santos Demoiselle, Which became a hot topic due to an engagement photo
© https://www.vogue.co.uk

The Watch Chosen by the 'Beloved'

In the 1950s when the technological limits of mechanical watches were approaching Rolex realized that the future value of watches and watchmakers should not be based on functional standards such as chronometer certification (proof of accuracy for mechanical watches) but on providing intangible value.

The first Day-Date Ref. 6511<br>© https://monochrome-watches.com

The first Day-Date Ref. 6511
© https://monochrome-watches.com

Perhaps for this reason just before the launch of the Daytona (1963) which was released without an in-house movement the Day-Date—an icon that is 'Rolex to the bone'—emphasized the image that 'great people wear the Day-Date' rather than promoting the addition of a day function to the date. This was the beginning of Rolex becoming a symbol of success.

A vintage Rolex ad that began the era of 'status marketing' <br> ©
  https://www.adpatina.com

A vintage Rolex ad that began the era of 'status marketing'
© https://www.adpatina.com

Cartier is also following a similar path to Rolex in that it is building the image of a 'watch for a certain person.'

Since the 1800s Cartier has manufactured and distributed jewelry for nobles and celebrities who lived glamorous lives and for Cartier watches needed to be beautiful rather than simply functional.

The Cartier Tonneau was first released in 1906 <br>
© https://amsterdamvintagewatches.com

The Cartier Tonneau was first released in 1906
© https://amsterdamvintagewatches.com

The Santos, Which appeared in 1904 and left a signature element on the Cartier dial <br>© https://revolutionwatch.com

The Santos, Which appeared in 1904 and left a signature element on the Cartier dial
© https://revolutionwatch.com

For about 120 years Cartier has focused solely on making 'beautiful' watches and like Rolex instills a strong desire for something unnecessary convincing us that it is essential. This is an achievement that even far more 'outstanding' watchmakers such as Jaeger-LeCoultre IWC Longines and Omega have not accomplished.

Princess Diana's Tank Francaise <br>
©
https://www.vanityfair.com

Princess Diana's Tank Francaise
© https://www.vanityfair.com

Andy Warhol's Tank Louis Cartier <br>
https://www.thejewelleryeditor.com

Andy Warhol's Tank Louis Cartier
https://www.thejewelleryeditor.com

Cartier was a watch chosen by the 'beloved' before it was chosen by the 'capable.'

'Icon Factory'

Rolex and Cartier can be called 'icon factories.' There are many watchmakers lined up in department stores and luxury shopping streets. Among them only a few have created multiple icons that even people who are not watch collectors can instantly recognize and say 'Oh I know what that watch looks like!'

Personally I think Omega (Speedmaster) Audemars Piguet (Royal Oak) and Jaeger-LeCoultre (Reverso) each have only one and even the 'great' Patek Philippe is only widely recognized for the Nautilus.

When you think of 'Audemars Piguet' you instantly think of the `Royal Oak` <br>
©
https://monochrome-watches.com

When you think of 'Audemars Piguet' you instantly think of the `Royal Oak`
© https://monochrome-watches.com

On the other hand Rolex has six icons: Datejust Submariner GMT-Master Day-Date Daytona and the most basic Oyster Perpetual. Even with non-mainstream models such as the Explorer Sky-Dweller and Yacht-Master anyone can intuitively recognize them as Rolex.

Symbolic Icons

The Submariner first introduced by Rolex in 1953 was not the first diver's watch but it became such a famous icon of diver's watches that many people are mistaken about it.

The First Rolex Submariner, 1953 <br> ©
https://www.ablogtowatch.com

The First Rolex Submariner, 1953
© https://www.ablogtowatch.com

The Datejust first introduced by Rolex in 1945 was not the first automatic watch with a date function but no one is actually curious about which watch was truly the first.

The Original 1945 Rolex Pre-Datejust <br> ©
https://www.rolexmagazine.com

The Original 1945 Rolex Pre-Datejust
© https://www.rolexmagazine.com

Cartier also has four representative model lines: Santos Tank Ballon Bleu and Panthère. Ballon Bleu is also enjoying considerable popularity.

Most watchmakers celebrate the 50 or 70 year history of their 'icon' models by releasing limited editions and launching flashy promotions but the history of the Cartier Tank is 109 years and the Santos an astonishing 122 years.

Resale Value Retention

Have you ever heard someone say 'I made money by buying an IWC!'? It is the kind of comment where someone is happy that the retail price of the IWC they bought a few years ago has increased so they enjoy wearing the watch and feel that their asset value has gone up. Probably not.

IWC Portugieser Chronograph <br>
https://www.hodinkee.com

IWC Portugieser Chronograph
https://www.hodinkee.com

In 2011 the used price of the IWC Portugieser which retailed for $11700 was about $5000 at the time. The moment you bought it more than 50% depreciation occurred. Currently (15 years later) the price of the same watch is $4600. Considering the decline in currency value (inflation) over that period it is equivalent to an additional 30% depreciation.

Rolex Daytona 116520 <br>
©
https://www.windvintage.com

Rolex Daytona 116520
© https://www.windvintage.com

On the other hand if you had bought a Rolex Daytona (116520) Datejust (116234) or the more affordable and less mechanically valuable Tank Solo (W5200013) for $2500 in 2011 instead of the Portugieser?

Rolex Datejust 116234 Sodalite Dial <br>©
 https://www.watchclub.com

Rolex Datejust 116234 Sodalite Dial
© https://www.watchclub.com

Cartier Tank Solo Steel <br>
©
https://www.bobswatches.com

Cartier Tank Solo Steel
© https://www.bobswatches.com

Currently the Daytona is trading at about $20000 which is a 77% increase the Datejust at about $10000 which is a 30% increase and the Tank Solo at $3800 which is a 50% increase.

Of course it may be more comfortable to see watches as objects to appreciate and enjoy rather than as 'investments.' However if the watch you bought with your hard-earned money and the value of the brand are recognized by more people and the price also rises is there any greater satisfaction with a brand? I think this is possible because it is Cartier and Rolex.

Table 2. Price of the new Tank Must and actual transaction price of vintage Tank Must Vermeil

Table 2. Price of the new Tank Must and actual transaction price of vintage Tank Must Vermeil

So Different Yet So Similar

Can Cartier be a perfect substitute for Rolex? Functionally and mechanically of course not.

Cartier equipped with a high-end mechanical movement <br>
Tortue Monopoussoir Chronograph <br>
©
 https://loupethis.com

Cartier equipped with a high-end mechanical movement
Tortue Monopoussoir Chronograph
© https://loupethis.com

However if the demand for Cartier as an alternative to 'if not Rolex' or 'rather than Rolex' continues to grow does that not already prove its value? Rather than competing to do what Rolex does best even better (like Omega) Cartier has focused more intensively on areas where Rolex cannot. There are rumors that Cartier's sales and production exceeded 700000 units in 2025.

That is similar to Rolex about 20 years ago.

David Hwang

Watch Analyst

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