The Current State of Rolex Premium

Looking back at the first half of 2024 the word that best summarizes the secondary market for the Rolex Professional line is ‘recovery’. This proves that the ‘Rolex’ Professional line and ‘premium’ are still inseparable. Various factors such as trends changes in supply and demand and the retail price increase in June have influenced the market and the past six months have provided insight into the overall direction.

*This article is based on the VIVER Index as of the third week of June 2024 and is written based on the condition of unworn new products.

Submariner

As one of the most iconic Rolex models and a synonym for diver’s watches the Submariner has inspired countless homages for over 70 years. It serves as a benchmark for the secondary market as VIVER always emphasizes. Let us examine the price trends of the representative Submariner models that clearly reflect steady trading volume and the relationship between supply and demand.

Submariner Black

Submariner 124060, 126610LN ©Rolex

©VIVER Index

Unworn Transaction Premium
January: 21~22%
June: 27~28.5%
Latest VIVER Transaction Price: 16.8 million KRW (No Date)
18.75 million KRW (Date)

The Submariner No Date Ref. 124060 and the 126610LN with the cyclops lens are competing for the top 1 and 2 in cumulative VIVER transactions and their resale prices continue to rise. The simultaneous increase in both supply and demand is impressive and the resale premium for unworn pieces has increased by 6~7%. This figure reflects the retail price increase in June.

Both models have shown higher resale performance than the market price reaffirming their status as the most popular models. The unworn transaction price for the 124060 had already entered the 16 million KRW range before the June price increase and there is no sign of it dropping back to the 14 million KRW range. The 126610LN’s premium has also steadily risen and is now trading in the 18 million KRW range.

Although the premium increase rate for the 126610LN is lower than that of the 124060 its resale price is 2 million KRW higher resulting in relatively lower demand. In addition there is a strong consumer base that prefers the symmetrical dial and heritage of the ‘No Date’ so it is advisable to keep a close watch on this trend.

Submariner 124060

41mm, Black, Oyster

Submariner Date 126610LN

41mm, Black, Oyster

Submariner Green 126610LV (Starbucks)

Submariner 126610LV ©Rolex

Unworn Transaction Premium
January: +33%
June: +39% 
Latest VIVER Transaction Price: 21.28 million KRW

There is an ‘unwritten rule’ that Rolex watches in the brand’s iconic green always command a significant premium. The Submariner ‘Starbucks’ is a prime example.
Maintaining a resale premium in the 30% range this is the Submariner model with the highest premium.

Actual transaction prices are being settled below asking prices.
The current resale price range (21~22 million KRW) is
similar to the unworn transaction prices at the ‘bottom’ of the watch resale market in early 2023. This indicates that after a year of significant price drops the market is finally recovering.

Submariner Date 126610LV

41mm, Black, Oyster

Submariner Rolesor

Submariner 126613LB, 126613LN ©Rolex

©VIVER Index

Unworn Transaction Premium 
January: +3~5%
June: +1.4~7.8%
Latest VIVER Transaction Price: 24.8 million (Blue) 25 million (Black)

Submariner Rolesor models are released at higher retail prices than the steel versions but the premium itself is lower. The June retail price increase for the Blue and Black models was a remarkable 6.3% which is double the rate for the steel versions. While it could be interpreted that the resale price simply adjusted to match the retail price change in reality the premium for the Blue model has actually decreased.

Although the premiums for both models are unstable since May the actual transaction prices for unworn watches have approached 24 million KRW. In fact the Blue model’s transaction price was lower than the market price while the Black model’s was higher. Despite these minor fluctuations both models are known for maintaining a ‘box range’ with unworn resale premiums below 10%.

Submariner Date 126613LB

41mm, Royal Blue, Oyster

Submariner Date 126613LN

41mm, Black, Oyster

Daytona

Daytona 126500LN

Daytona 126500LN ©Rolex

Unworn Transaction Premium: 110~118%
Latest VIVER Average Transaction Price: 47 million (White Dial) 47.25 million (Black Dial)

How has the resale performance of the Daytona the icon of chronographs with a newly updated lineup been? When it first appeared on the resale market the steel ‘Ceratoner’ ref. 126500LN fetched asking prices in the 50 million KRW range and now trades between 43 and 50 million KRW. It raises the question of whether the Daytona which once dominated the luxury watch resale market has now entered a period of price stability.

It is difficult to predict future price trends for the ‘Ceratoner’ due to relatively low trading volume. Although there were expectations that the premium would rise with the increased retail price the premium actually fell by 3% between February and June and the price gap between the black and white versions is also narrowing.

The resale premium for the 126500LN exceeds 100% but the 70 million KRW asking prices seen during the ‘Ceratoner’ heyday are now gone making the model more accessible.

Left 116500LN, Right 126500LN ©A Blog to Watch

The price of the previous reference 116500LN has been affected by the release of the new model but the situation is somewhat different from other Rolex models.

For the previous reference 116500LN (White Dial) the unworn resale price can be summed up as ‘the seller sets the price’. The market price is about 5 million KRW lower but asking prices range widely from the low to high 40 million KRW. Data shows that many consumers still prefer the asymmetrical case and bold chronograph sub-dials of the previous reference. However there are opinions in the international watch community that transactions are not being completed due to unstable prices.

Daytona 126500LN

40mm, White, Oyster

Daytona 126500LN

40mm, Black, Oyster

Daytona 116500LN

40mm, White, Oyster

Daytona 116500LN

40mm, Black, Oyster

GMT Master 2

GMT Master 2 Ref. 126710BLRO (Jubilee)

GMT Master 2 Ref.126710BLRO ©Rolex

©VIVER Index

Unworn Transaction Premium
January: 95.4%
June: 112%
Latest VIVER Transaction Price: 33 million KRW

The discontinuation rumors surrounding the GMT-Master ‘Pepsi’ have been dispelled again this year and paradoxically its resale premium has continued to rise. The main reason is believed to be the supply shortage caused by these discontinuation rumors. In fact resale trading volume was very low for about 8~10 months due to these rumors. After Watches and Wonders listings that had disappeared began to reappear as if by magic. Prices began to reflect actual demand and the ‘Pepsi’ once again set new premium highs.

The price for the ‘Pepsi Girl’ with the Jubilee bracelet has increased by about 15% compared to December 2023 and now ranges between 30 and 34 million KRW. As market supply is significantly lower than demand actual transaction prices continue to rise. It has regained its former glory and is commanding higher prices than the newly released 126710GRNR making it a strong player in the resale market.

GMT-Master 2 126710BLRO

40mm, Black, Jubilee

GMT-Master 2 126710BLRO

40mm, Black, Oyster

GMT-Master 2 126710GRNR

40mm, Black, Jubilee

GMT Master 2 Ref. 126710BLNR

GMT Master 2 Ref.126710BLNR ©Rolex

©VIVER Index

Unworn Transaction Premium
January: 38~54%
June: 54.6~64%
Latest VIVER Transaction Price: 23.6 million (Oyster) 25.5 million (Jubilee)

GMT Master 2 126710 BLNR ‘Batman’ and
‘Batgirl’ show a clear premium gap compared to the ‘Pepsi’ but remain among the strongest professional models in the resale market. The ‘Batman’ with the Oyster bracelet saw its premium rise sharply to 50% and the ‘Batgirl’ with the Jubilee bracelet saw a 10% premium increase.

GMT-Master 2 126710BLNR

40mm, Black, Oyster

GMT-Master 2 126710BLNR

40mm, Black, Jubilee

Explorer 1

Explorer 1
Ref. 124270 & Ref. 224270

Explorer 1 Ref. 124270 & Ref. 224270 ©Rolex

©VIVER Index

Unworn Transaction Premium
January: 15~32%
June: 29~31%
Latest VIVER Transaction Price: 13.5 million (36mm) 14 million (40mm)

The Explorer 1 line is said to best embody the essence and ethos of Rolex. It is among the top 10 in transaction volume on VIVER.
First the 124270 which inherits the heritage of the 36mm case. The resale premium for the 124270 has declined.

The 224270 (Explorer 40) entered the market about three years later than the 124270 but has already surpassed it in cumulative transactions on VIVER. Although both the retail and resale prices for the 224270 are higher than those for the 124270 the premium is lower. The average price for the Explorer 40 has increased by about 14.5% and it has firmly established itself as a steady seller. If this trend continues the price range could expand to the 14 million KRW range in the second half of the year.

Explorer 1 124270

36mm, Black, Oyster

Explorer 40 224270

40mm, Black, Oyster